The Baltimore Orioles' starting rotation might not be perfect, but it’s a deliberate choice by the front office—one that could define their season. Here’s the bold truth: this rotation isn’t about being flawless; it’s about being functional, and that’s exactly what Mike Elias, the team’s President of Baseball Operations, has in mind. But here’s where it gets controversial: is this strategy enough to compete in the ruthless AL East? Let’s dive in.
Much of the offseason chatter revolved around the Orioles’ rotation, which struggled miserably in 2025. Injuries were the culprit—a laundry list of them. Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells began the year on the mend from Tommy John surgery, Grayson Rodriguez battled a lat injury and elbow discomfort, Zach Eflin’s back issues derailed his season, and Trevor Rogers didn’t return until late May after a kneecap dislocation. By the time Rogers was back, the season had already spiraled out of control. Brandon Hyde was fired, and the team’s early-season hole was too deep to climb out of. While the rotation wasn’t the sole reason for the collapse, its flaws certainly didn’t help.
Elias promised to address these issues, and he did—sort of. He made moves, but once again, he didn’t land a true ace, leaving some fans worried about a repeat of 2025. And this is the part most people miss: Elias isn’t building a rotation to dominate; he’s building one to survive—at least for now.
The biggest move came in mid-December with the acquisition of Shane Baz from the Rays. The price? Four prospects and a Competitive Balance Round A pick. Steep, especially for a pitcher with a 4.87 ERA in 2025. But Baz’s peripherals suggest potential, and he’s under team control for three years. The Orioles are betting on his upside, with new manager Craig Albernaz even suggesting Baz could be a Cy Young contender. Bold words for a pitcher who’s yet to prove himself fully.
Depth was the focus of the other moves. Zach Eflin returned on a one-year deal, hoping his lumbar microdisectomy has solved his back issues. Chris Bassitt, a reliable veteran, was signed for his durability—he’s thrown 157+ innings in each of the last five seasons. Together, they join Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, and Dean Kremer as the core of the 2026 rotation.
Here’s the controversial take: this rotation isn’t about stardom; it’s about consistency. FanGraphs ranks the Orioles’ rotation 17th in MLB and last in the AL East, which isn’t surprising given the division’s pitching talent. But the gap isn’t as wide as you’d think. The Orioles’ projected 11.8 fWAR isn’t far behind the Yankees (13.5) or Rays (13.1). And with a potentially elite offense led by Pete Alonso and Samuel Basallo, the Orioles could stay competitive until the trade deadline—a time when Elias has shown he’s willing to make bold moves.
But let’s not ignore the elephant in the room: Elias prioritizes offense. He drafts position players early, signs them to long-term deals, and treats pitchers as short-term investments. This approach has its risks, but it’s his strategy. If the rotation holds up and the offense delivers, the Orioles could find themselves in playoff contention. If not, they’ll need another in-season trade to push them into the top 10.
So, here’s the question for you: Is Elias’s rotation strategy a recipe for success, or is it a gamble that could backfire? Let us know in the comments—we want to hear your take!
