Net Zero Emissions: The Coalition's 'Poisoned' Policy Dilemma
The Liberal Party's commitment to net zero emissions by 2050, a promise made under Scott Morrison and maintained by Peter Dutton, is facing a critical juncture. As the party's meeting on energy policy concluded, many Liberal MPs were resigned to the fact that this ambitious goal was all but dead. However, there was a glimmer of hope in the form of a more modest pledge to carbon neutrality, albeit at an unspecified future date.
Fast forward a week, and even this minimal commitment is under threat. The support for net zero emissions within Sussan Ley's leadership team has waned, following the National Party's decision to abandon the climate target. This move has incensed pro-net zero Liberals, who are now in a race against time and internal party dynamics to salvage the policy.
The impending resolution of the Liberal Party's stance next week will set the stage for Coalition partners to negotiate a unified policy. Sources anticipate that this will involve discarding the net zero target and embracing a National Party-inspired approach, aligning Australia's emissions reduction timeline with that of other nations.
This potential deal aims to maintain the unity of the Liberal and National parties (for now), shield Ley's leadership from potential challenges by Angus Taylor or Andrew Hastie (temporarily), and potentially regain some conservative votes that have been shifting towards One Nation.
However, some Liberals express concern that this latest attempt to quell the climate policy conflict may have long-lasting electoral repercussions. They argue that the term 'net zero' has been effectively 'poisoned' in the political debate by populist voices on the right, including media outlets like Sky News, 2GB, and News Corp.
These concerns are heightened by recent developments, such as the potential closure of the Tomago aluminium smelter, rising inflation, and comments from Bill Gates suggesting that climate change will not lead to humanity's demise. These factors have hardened internal opposition to the net zero target.
The National Party's decision to abandon the target, following its own review, has significantly altered the political landscape, compelling the Liberals to align with the Nationals to preserve the Coalition's unity. This shift has led to a firm view crystallizing within the leadership team, with only South Australian Senator Anne Ruston advocating for a strong climate target.
Ruston's stance highlights the diminishing influence of moderates within the Liberal Party, a faction that has suffered setbacks in recent elections at the hands of teal independents, Labor, and the Greens. Despite this, Ruston's position is unique, as she is not a Liberal moderate in the traditional sense, but rather a factional leader after the retirements and demotions of other key figures.
Moderate MPs, including Andrew Bragg, are engaged in a public and private campaign to rescue the net zero policy, fearing that its abandonment would further erode the party's standing in urban areas and among women and young people. They are willing to concede the 2050 deadline to maintain some commitment to net zero emissions this century, but emphasize that the target cannot be abandoned entirely.
Bragg, in particular, emphasizes the importance of a clear target and the party's commitment to it, stating that Australians want to see progress towards net zero. He argues that giving up on climate action would send a negative message and is not true leadership. Fellow moderate Dave Sharma has even suggested the possibility of splitting from the National Party if they refuse to compromise.
Despite the potential for drastic actions, the moderates' fury at the right-wing Nationals' influence is evident. Senior Liberals are strategizing how to communicate the new position, aiming to reassure voters, especially those in city seats, that the party has not surrendered on emissions reduction. However, Tony Barry, a former Liberal strategist, warns that the perception of the Coalition as climate change deniers poses a significant challenge to this message, especially in urban areas where Barnaby Joyce's position is unpopular.
In the end, the fate of net zero emissions as a Coalition policy remains uncertain, with the party's internal dynamics and public perception at stake.
